![]() The unreliability of efficiency metrics (yards per touch and yards per carry) is perhaps the biggest data point to note. Compared to other positions, running backs compile so many touches and accumulate so many yards that as long as they have decent scoring equity, their predictable volume leads to fairly predictable fantasy production. Running back production is mostly volume-driven-the year-to-year correlation for fantasy scoring is moderately strong, despite the fact that touchdowns don't often carry over from one year to the next. The table below lists the year-to-year correlations for those nine running back stats using the methodology described above: Year-to-Year Correlations for RBs, 2012–2022 StatĪ running back’s usage is the most reliable data when trying to project his current season based on the previous year's stats. ![]() With the huge variance in games played, year-long volume stats showed very little year-over-year correlation over the entire sample. The decision to use per-game stats is based on the fact that total games played are extremely unpredictable for all positions, especially running backs-those with an ADP in the top 200 over the last 10 years saw a year-to-year correlation of -.02 for games played. This resulted in a sample of 249 running backs. Running Back Predictability Methodologyįor this study, I considered all running backs since 2012 who saw 100 touches in consecutive seasons and compared their numbers each year, running a simple correlation for 12 common per-game running back stats. This article has been updated to reflect data through 2022. This analysis will dig into common running back stats and explore which ones often carry over from one year to the next and how to use those that don't. Sometimes, data points from the previous season can be predictive but other stats may be misleading. In fantasy football, preseason opinions are often shaped by how players performed in the previous season. ![]()
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